world population prospects united nation
An additional 29 countries, mostly in Europe and the Caribbean, already have potential support ratios below three. The method takes into account the past experience of each country, while also reflecting uncertainty about future changes based on the past experience of other countries under similar conditions. The report includes updated population estimates from 1950 to the present for 235 countries or areas, based on detailed analyses of all available information about the relevant historical demographic trends. The cohort-component method was also used to project population trends until 2100 using a variety of demographic assumptions concerning the components of population change. “Many of the fastest growing populations are in the poorest countries, where population growth brings additional challenges in the effort to eradicate poverty, achieve greater equality, combat hunger and malnutrition and strengthen the coverage and quality of health and education systems to ensure that no one is left behind.”, Growth of the working-age population is creating opportunities for economic growth. ), Mr. Liu Zhenmin, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, said the report offers a roadmap indicating where to target action and interventions. Around 2027, India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country. This drop is caused by sustained low levels of fertility. Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, adult HIV prevalence and coverage of antiretroviral treatment, international migration flows and stocks of foreign-born persons, Developing Countries Mortality Database–DCMD. The global fertility rate, which fell from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019, is projected to decline further to 2.2 in 2050. * Including the Human Mortality Database and Human Life Table Database (UC Berkeley, MPIDR and INED), the Human Fertility Database and Human Fertility Collection (MPIDR and VID), the Latin American Mortality Database–LAMBdA (University of Wisconsin-Madison), the International Data Base (U.S. Census Bureau), the Global Burden of Disease project (IHME, University of Washington) and the Developing Countries Mortality Database–DCMD (Zhejiang University). Falling proportion of working-age population is putting pressure on social protection systems. In 2019, life expectancy at birth in the least developed countries lags 7.4 years behind the global average, due largely to persistently high levels of child and maternal mortality, as well as violence, conflict and the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic. Since 2010, 27 countries or areas have experienced a reduction of one per cent or more in the size of their populations. Life expectancy at birth for the world, which increased from 64.2 years in 1990 to 72.6 years in 2019, is expected to increase further to 77.1 years in 2050. In projecting future levels of fertility and mortality, probabilistic methods were used to reflect the uncertainty of the projections based on the historical variability of changes in each variable. In cases where data on the components of population change relative to the past 5 or 10 years are not available, estimated demographic trends are projections based on the most recent available data. These documents do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The impact of low fertility on population size is reinforced in some locations by high rates of emigration. To benefit from this “demographic dividend”, governments should invest in education and health, especially for young people, and create conditions conducive to sustained economic growth. “These data constitute a critical piece of the evidence base needed for monitoring global progress toward achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030”, says John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 1,690 population and housing censuses for 235 countries or areas, including 236 censuses conducted since 2010; vital registration of births and deaths from 163 countries or areas; 2,700 surveys, including demographic and health surveys, conducted in 235 countries or areas, among which 540 were administered in 2010 or later; population registers and other administrative sources on international migration statistics. The estimates are based on all available sources of data on population size and levels of fertility, mortality and international migration for 235 distinct countries or areas comprising the total population of the world. In total, the 2019 revision is based on information from: In addition to the national data sources described above, the 2019 revision has considered international estimates from the following sources: These data sources served to reconstruct population changes in each country or area from 1950 until the present. In most of sub-Saharan Africa, and in parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, recent reductions in fertility have caused the population at working ages (25-64 years) to grow faster than at other ages, creating an opportunity for accelerated economic growth thanks to a favourable population age distribution.


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